Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd4d…575d crypto 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,796 (-21%) realized −$6,796 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%44W / 45L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,325
7 days−$5,190
14 days−$5,190
30 days−$5,190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$5,836
sports 24% −$1,401
other 1% +$239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -41.9% -47.5% 40% 27% -59.2%
≤30d 15 -41.9% -47.5% 40% 27% -59.2%
≤90d 15 -41.9% -47.5% 40% 27% -59.2%
all 89 -11.9% -20.3% 49% 44% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 44% -28.8%
10% -27.9% 36% -35.7%
15% -34.9% 27% -41.9%
20% -41.3% 25% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$554) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$317 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,796
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses44 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage176d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $448 −$448 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $352 −$252 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $301 +$18 +6%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $676 −$670 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $617 −$617 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $504 +$789 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $375 +$106 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $968 −$968 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $903 +$234 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $724 −$710 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $1,610 −$1,610 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $1,214 −$1,096 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $342 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $406 +$113 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Brisbane International: Clara Tauson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Jan 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Magic vs. Wizards Jan 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Jan 22 $747 −$747 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-01-06? Jan 07 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 07 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 07 $559 −$559 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $971 +$193 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 07 $179 +$269 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 07 $294 +$44 +15%
Brisbane International: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov Jan 07 $799 −$18 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 07 $75 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 07 $406 +$126 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 06 $217 −$135 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9AM ET Jan 06 $367 −$302 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12PM ET Jan 06 $635 −$167 -26%
Will Leicester City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 06 $134 −$134 -100%
Brisbane International: Marie Bouzkova vs Paula Badosa Jan 06 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 06 $294 −$294 -100%
ASB Classic: Camila Osorio vs Petra Marcinko Jan 06 $742 −$635 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 06 $278 −$278 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 06 $347 +$342 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 06 $198 +$102 +52%
ASB Classic: Katie Boulter vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jan 06 $427 +$280 +66%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 06 $295 +$36 +12%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jan 06 $583 −$527 -90%
Spread: Raptors (-3.5) Jan 06 $94 +$64 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 06 $136 +$81 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 06 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5PM ET Jan 05 $554 +$98 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 05 $579 +$113 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4PM ET Jan 05 $293 +$179 +61%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05? Jan 05 $279 +$325 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 4PM ET Jan 05 $705 +$32 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $126 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $84 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $676 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $205 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $181 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $115 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $209 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $203 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $172 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $71 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $138 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $206 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $205 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $141 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1136 history records