Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd55…c9bf other 913 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,645 (+3%) realized +$2,046 · open +$599
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%347W / 551L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$577est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$3,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$25
14 days+$158
30 days−$1,485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$1,035
sports 34% +$3,177
crypto 2% +$17
politics 2% −$375
world 2% +$56
culture 1% −$485
tech 1% −$407
economics 0% +$214
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +47.5% +33.4% 40% 40% -8.8%
≤30d 72 -2.6% -11.9% 38% 38% -21.6%
≤90d 446 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 38% -8.0%
all 898 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 37% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 34% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 30% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 27% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$63 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$3,367
Realized+$2,046
Unrealized+$599
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses347 / 551
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$577
Open positions14
Markets (closed)898 / 913
History coverage246d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 898 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $816 $1,794 +$978 (+120%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $480 $437 −$42 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $725 $414 −$311 (-43%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $290 $280 −$10 (-3%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 61¢ 92¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $250 $125 −$125 (-50%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 52¢ $40 $98 +$58 (+145%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+102%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 9¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+145%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 36¢ 67¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 425 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$187 +364%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $203 +$155 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$132 +33%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $407 −$400 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$105 +206%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $142 +$185 +130%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 +$115 +57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $107 −$105 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $11 +$80 +712%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $153 +$266 +173%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $463 −$89 -19%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $455 −$300 -66%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$2 -8%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$61 +120%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 +$56 +109%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $206 −$109 -53%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $142 −$140 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$29 +279%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $122 +$41 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$132 +44%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $36 +$40 +112%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $102 +$148 +145%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $51 +$7 +14%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $133 +$243 +183%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $152 +$45 +30%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 07 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 06 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $600 −$46 -8%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $181 −$179 -99%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 05 $92 +$137 +149%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $10 −$1 -10%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 02 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $70 19m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $56 54m
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 61¢ $101 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $180 22h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 27h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 27h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 28h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 56¢ $203 33h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $98 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 29¢ $98 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 29¢ $102 33h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 90¢ $536 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 67¢ $404 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $407 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $156 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 92¢ $327 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $51 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 89¢ $318 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,366.54 · official $3,371.60 (match) · 2981 history records