Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd56…073e crypto 810 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-5%) realized −$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate52%421W / 388L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days+$17
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$92
sports 1% −$10
other 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -7.0% -15.9% 55% 24% -19.1%
≤30d 220 -3.3% -12.5% 51% 27% -7.7%
≤90d 731 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 14% -16.5%
all 809 -11.3% -19.8% 52% 15% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 15% -15.4%
10% -27.5% 7% -23.5%
15% -34.5% 4% -30.9%
20% -40.9% 2% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses421 / 388
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)809 / 810
History coverage230d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 809 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.30 (match) · 2264 history records