Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DD 0xdd58…18f9 sports 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24,277 (+4%) realized +$28,123 · open −$3,846
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%113W / 119L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$2,429per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$6,749est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$33,525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$40,449
other 15% +$27,027
culture 2% +$47
crypto 1% −$494
world 0% −$3,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -51.2% -55.8% 23% 23% -3.4%
≤30d 96 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 47% +6.1%
≤90d 219 +10.4% -0.1% 49% 48% +1.4%
all 232 +8.4% -2.0% 49% 47% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 47% +1.1%
10% -11.3% 47% -8.6%
15% ← realistic here -19.9% 45% -17.4%
20% -27.8% 44% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$3,509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,747 vs −$2,038 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$33,525
Realized+$28,123
Unrealized−$3,846
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses113 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$6,749
Open positions22
Markets (closed)232 / 254
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$2,429
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 72¢ $5,235 $5,504 +$269 (+5%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 74¢ $3,907 $4,952 +$1,044 (+27%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 36¢ $3,253 $3,651 +$398 (+12%)
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $3,656 $3,491 −$165 (-5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 52¢ $3,428 $2,934 −$494 (-14%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 60¢ 37¢ $4,200 $2,590 −$1,610 (-38%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Team Liquid 59¢ 50¢ $2,953 $2,528 −$425 (-14%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1,210 $1,242 +$33 (+3%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $1,208 $1,198 −$10 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 71¢ $642 $1,036 +$394 (+61%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 67¢ 72¢ $799 $859 +$60 (+7%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 68¢ 76¢ $765 $850 +$84 (+11%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 40¢ $563 $618 +$55 (+10%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 6¢ $2,240 $520 −$1,720 (-77%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 40¢ $420 $486 +$66 (+16%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 38¢ $311 $342 +$31 (+10%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? No 58¢ 48¢ $307 $250 −$57 (-19%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 41¢ 50¢ $197 $238 +$41 (+21%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $126 $104 −$22 (-18%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 60¢ 66¢ $69 $75 +$6 (+9%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $68 $54 −$14 (-20%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ 0¢ $2,240 $4 −$2,236 (-100%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $3,120 +$2,880 +92%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $16,320 +$29,680 +182%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $3,920 +$3,080 +79%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $1,377 +$2,247 +163%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $9,450 +$5,550 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 24 $4,080 −$4,080 -100%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 24 $3,480 −$3,480 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3,342 −$3,342 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1,083 −$1,083 -100%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 24 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 24 $5,241 −$5,241 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $2,982 −$2,982 -100%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $116 −$116 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $324 −$324 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $740 −$740 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $783 −$783 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,977 −$1,977 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1,358 −$1,358 -100%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1,819 −$1,819 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $4,720 +$3,280 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,925 +$4,575 +156%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2,112 +$1,403 +66%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $109 +$97 +89%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4,270 +$2,730 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $181 +$240 +133%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $7 +$4 +61%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2,878 +$4,900 +170%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $3,891 +$7,774 +200%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $299 +$413 +138%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,460 −$2,460 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,707 −$4,707 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4,240 −$4,240 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6,331 −$6,331 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $6,540 +$6,460 +99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4,261 +$5,739 +135%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,709 +$3,606 +133%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,180 +$2,820 +89%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 14 $7 +$19 +257%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $3,500 +$4,278 +122%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1,698 +$763 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4,500 +$3,000 +67%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $969 −$969 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 41¢ $22 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $4 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $101 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $1 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $196 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $30 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $1,509 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $39 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $359 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 41¢ $175 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Liquid 59¢ $2,989 1h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 2h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 3h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 3h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $86 4h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $185 7h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 7h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 7h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 7h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 7h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 7h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 8h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 8h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 9h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 9h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 9h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 51¢ $2,272 9h
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,525.23 · official $33,525.23 (match) · 3500 history records