Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DD 0xdd5a…4d23 world 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-8%) realized +$19 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$26
other 9% −$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.3% +27.0% 100% 50% +44.8%
≤30d 2 +40.3% +27.0% 100% 50% +44.8%
≤90d 2 +40.3% +27.0% 100% 50% +44.8%
all 2 +40.3% +27.0% 100% 50% +44.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.0% 50% +44.8%
10% +14.8% 50% +30.9%
15% +3.7% 50% +18.3%
20% -6.4% 50% +6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)2 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 91¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 84¢ 95¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 68¢ 74¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 72¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 10¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-88%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 2¢ 0¢ $32 $1 −$31 (-97%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4m
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 48¢ $10 2h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $15 3h
Kurds declare independence from Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 76¢ $10 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 4h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $5 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 0¢ $1 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $5 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 0¢ $1 19h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 93¢ $5 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $5 42h
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 41¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $20 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.36 · official $216.01 (match) · 35 history records