Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd5b…efbe sports 383 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,733 (-7%) realized −$1,583 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%163W / 208L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$198
14 days−$145
30 days−$426
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$342
other 27% −$869
sports 23% −$756
politics 5% +$201
finance 4% −$273
tech 1% +$65
crypto 1% +$2
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% +$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.5% +11.7% 80% 60% +15.2%
≤30d 75 -4.4% -13.5% 49% 35% -16.6%
≤90d 209 -11.4% -19.9% 47% 38% -16.2%
all 371 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 37% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 37% -15.8%
10% -29.3% 34% -23.9%
15% -36.1% 28% -31.2%
20% -42.4% 20% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$31 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized−$1,583
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses163 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions12
Markets (closed)371 / 383
History coverage184d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 78¢ 86¢ $117 $130 +$13 (+12%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $75 $72 −$3 (-5%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 30¢ 16¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+35%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 21¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 26¢ $31 $15 −$16 (-52%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 52¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+21%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? No 46¢ 24¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-48%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 66¢ 4¢ $110 $7 −$102 (-93%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$22 -74%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $305 +$118 +39%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $201 +$58 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +170%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $44 +$17 +38%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 +$32 +63%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $294 −$289 -98%
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 Stanley Cup Final Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $75 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $508 −$10 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$8 +80%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$13 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -82%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 07 $25 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $24 +$11 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $25 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$9 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 31 $13 +$41 +308%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 30 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $50 +$17 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 29 $50 −$42 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 29 $5 +$22 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $76 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $110 20h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 44h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 45h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 90¢ $53 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 85¢ $50 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 76¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $21 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 3d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 50¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $216 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $61 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $33 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $82 7d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 7d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.81 · official $448.93 (match) · 996 history records