Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd5d…91fd crypto 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%117W / 4L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$11
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 92% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 121 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
all 121 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.79 per $1 lost it wins $13.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses117 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage84d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 99¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? Jun 21 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 22? Jun 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 20? Jun 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 18? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 18? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 17? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 15? Jun 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 13? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 11? Jun 10 $109 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 6? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 3? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 2? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 2? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 2? Jun 01 $107 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 30? May 29 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 29? May 28 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 28? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 27? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 26? May 25 $107 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 18-24? May 24 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 24? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 24? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 24? May 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? May 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 23? May 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 22? May 21 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 21? May 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 21? May 19 $106 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $111 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $9 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $96 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $111 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $111 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $111 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $111 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $111 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $111 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $111 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $111 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $110 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $11 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $84 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $84 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $52 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $26 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $17 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $84 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $84 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.56 · official $110.56 (match) · 310 history records