Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd63…3157 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-6%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$344
sports 41% +$24
world 11% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.3% -20.6% 30% 30% +21.0%
≤30d 20 -12.3% -20.6% 30% 30% +21.0%
≤90d 20 -12.3% -20.6% 30% 30% +21.0%
all 20 -12.3% -20.6% 30% 30% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 30% +21.0%
10% -28.2% 30% +9.4%
15% -35.1% 30% -1.1%
20% -41.5% 30% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$24 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $173 +$248 +143%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$64 +126%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$38 +249%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $63 +$80 +127%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -91%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$4 -9%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$143 +234%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 43m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $51 46m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $421 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $153 4h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 22¢ $51 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $115 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 20h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A SELL 92¢ $143 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 35¢ $37 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $41 25h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $40 28h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026- BUY 19¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 30h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.76 · official $124.77 · 41 history records