Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
DD 0xdd65…afb9 crypto 156 markets active 21h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%87W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$25
sports 11% −$4
other 2% +$31
world 2% +$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +76.6% +59.7% 46% 46% +23.3%
≤30d 28 +76.6% +59.7% 46% 46% +23.3%
≤90d 31 +66.4% +50.5% 45% 45% +7.1%
all 148 +21.7% +10.1% 59% 55% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 55% -9.0%
10% -0.4% 44% -17.7%
15% -10.1% 32% -25.7%
20% -18.9% 26% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses87 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 156
History coverage98d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-26%)
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +292%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$7 +712%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 +$21 +2076%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 08 $4 −$4 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +113%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 16? Mar 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 12PM ET Mar 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 12PM ET Mar 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7AM ET Mar 15 $2 +$9 +373%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 3AM ET Mar 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-03-12? Mar 13 $1 +$2 +212%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Mar 13 $1 +$2 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Will KRC Genk vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 4PM ET Mar 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 12 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 12 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 10AM ET Mar 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 10AM ET Mar 12 $3 −$2 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 20h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 21h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 46h
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 60¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 34¢ $1 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $1 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end BUY 18¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $3 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil BUY 8¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spr BUY 5¢ $3 4d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 12¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $2 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 1¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegov BUY 69¢ $4 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 25¢ $6 5d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.55 · official $2.55 (match) · 425 history records