Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd66…cb4a crypto 21 markets active 6d ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$246 (-85%) realized −$246 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$218
sports 10% −$23
politics 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 2 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 0% -5.7%
all 20 -14.5% -22.6% 70% 0% -89.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 0% -89.7%
10% -30.0% 0% -90.7%
15% -36.8% 0% -91.6%
20% -43.0% 0% -92.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$41 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage454d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $6 +$1 +9%
Jazz vs. Hawks Feb 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 3, 6AM ET Dec 04 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? Apr 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 79d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 92¢ $6 86d
Jazz vs. Hawks BUY Jazz 23¢ $23 132d
Solana Up or Down - December 3, 6AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $218 196d
Will Scott Stringer win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $5 231d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 390d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 404d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 432d
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 439d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 446d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 453d
Solana above $145 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 460d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.60 · official $12.60 (match) · 46 history records