Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd68…05f5 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+4%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%40W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$124
14 days+$124
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$27
other 10% +$177
sports 9% −$13
world 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +20.9% +9.4% 62% 62% +9.8%
≤30d 16 +20.9% +9.4% 62% 62% +9.8%
≤90d 17 +13.8% +3.0% 59% 59% +9.6%
all 67 +8.4% -1.9% 60% 57% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 57% -5.1%
10% -11.3% 54% -14.2%
15% -19.9% 48% -22.5%
20% -27.7% 36% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$44 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses40 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage216d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$44 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 +$33 +73%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$22 +55%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$33 +105%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$31 +76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$29 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 +$20 +63%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$67 +165%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 4AM ET Jan 08 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 11PM ET Jan 08 $13 +$7 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 12AM ET Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 8PM ET Jan 08 $15 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6PM ET Jan 08 $13 +$3 +27%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 7AM ET Jan 07 $10 +$6 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 04 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 04 $12 +$6 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jan 03 $9 +$8 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 14? Dec 14 $20 −$16 -79%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 4? Dec 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 03 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9AM ET Dec 02 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8PM ET Dec 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $24 +$31 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Nov 29 $30 −$26 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 28? Nov 28 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 5AM ET Nov 27 $38 +$25 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 6AM ET Nov 26 $33 −$28 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 4AM ET Nov 26 $46 +$23 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Nov 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Nov 26 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 25? Nov 25 $37 +$49 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Nov 25 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 25 $20 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Nov 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November? Nov 21 $126 +$148 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 17? Nov 17 $15 +$15 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Nov 17 $69 +$51 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Nov 17 $51 +$119 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Nov 17 $41 +$10 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Nov 17 $30 +$11 +36%
XRP Up or Down - November 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Nov 17 $160 +$13 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $40 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $33 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 47h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $31 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 50¢ $43 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 61¢ $32 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 7d
Timberwolves vs. 76ers BUY Timberwolves 45¢ $1 76d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 4AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 161d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 4AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 161d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 4AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 161d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 12AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 161d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 11PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $13 161d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 8PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $15 161d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $13 161d
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 7AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 162d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $13 165d
XRP Up or Down - January 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $12 165d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 166d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.04 · official $40.04 (match) · 136 history records