Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd74…4898 politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$1
sports 22% −$2
other 21% $0
economics 13% −$1
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 23 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage140d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $87 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $89 −$2 -2%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $90 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $91 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $92 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 06 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $92 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $92 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $87 17h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $87 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $87 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $87 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $87 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $87 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $87 24d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 25d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $87 26d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 37d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 38d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $87 39d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $89 40d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $89 43d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $90 44d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $90 52d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $90 52d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 69d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 70d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 71d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 72d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $91 76d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $91 76d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 99¢ $91 82d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $92 82d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 85d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 86d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 87d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records