Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd78…61de other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized +$1 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$11
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.7% -27.4% 62% 38% -10.0%
≤30d 8 -19.7% -27.4% 62% 38% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -19.7% -27.4% 62% 38% -10.0%
all 8 -19.7% -27.4% 62% 38% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 38% -10.0%
10% -34.3% 25% -18.6%
15% -40.7% 25% -26.4%
20% -46.5% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $303 37h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $300 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 39h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 17 history records