Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd79…4489 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$6
politics 20% −$2
sports 5% +$2
economics 3% $0
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.9% -13.9% 20% 20% -11.4%
≤30d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 15% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 100 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 102 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 7% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×7.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage93d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $16 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $153 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $152 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $73 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $77 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $76 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $293 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $74 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $147 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $157 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $158 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $77 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $83 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $76 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $75 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 6h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 8h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 26h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $18 28h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $10 35h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $43 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $11 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $14 8d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $14 8d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $17 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.71 · official $69.71 (match) · 282 history records