Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdd7a…7bfb weather 997 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1234 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$2,897 (+28%) realized +$2,687 · open +$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +491% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +355% what you keep after slip
Net edge+355%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate96%530W / 20L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1234.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1234 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+434.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 550 +490.9% +434.6% 96% 77% +35.3%
≤30d 550 +490.9% +434.6% 96% 77% +35.3%
≤90d 550 +490.9% +434.6% 96% 77% +35.3%
all 550 +490.9% +434.6% 96% 77% +35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1234.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +434.6% 77% +35.3%
10% ← realistic here +383.5% 71% +22.3%
15% +336.8% 69% +10.5%
20% +294.0% 64% -0.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +491% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +146% → late +836% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×20.33 per $1 lost it wins $20.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$3,177
Realized+$2,687
Unrealized+$210
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses530 / 20
Open positions166
Markets (closed)550 / 997
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1234.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 166 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? No 89¢ 91¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 26? No 93¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26? No 87¢ 100¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 26? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? No 50¢ 100¢ $16 $32 +$16 (+99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 27? No 94¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 27? No 95¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 26? No 87¢ 100¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26? No 58¢ 99¢ $19 $32 +$13 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 27? No 95¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 27? No 95¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 27? No 94¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 27? No 95¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 26? No 93¢ 99¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 27? No 95¢ 98¢ $30 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 26? No 54¢ 98¢ $17 $32 +$14 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 26? No 93¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 27? No 90¢ 98¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? No 96¢ 98¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 28? No 95¢ 98¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 27? No 96¢ 98¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 27? No 91¢ 97¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? No 94¢ 97¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27? No 91¢ 97¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26? No 87¢ 96¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 305 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +343%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 4? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 23? Jun 26 $1 +$4 +453%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 26 $1 +$4 +514%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 12? Jun 26 $0 +$7 +1456%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 31? Jun 26 $1 +$9 +1236%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +352%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 23? Jun 26 $1 +$9 +1255%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 11? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3? Jun 26 $1 +$11 +1943%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on May 4? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +340%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 20? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +377%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 +$8 +1121%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? Jun 26 $0 +$18 +6023%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 +$1 +127%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 7? Jun 26 $1 +$13 +2289%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 10? Jun 26 $1 +$4 +599%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +275%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +237%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 17? Jun 26 $1 +$4 +453%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 10? Jun 26 $1 +$8 +1033%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 12? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 6? Jun 26 $1 +$8 +1008%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 +$9 +1305%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 14? Jun 26 $1 +$4 +571%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 30? Jun 26 $1 +$6 +834%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +393%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 6? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +393%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 22? Jun 26 $1 +$13 +2223%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 6? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +309%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 17? Jun 26 $1 +$6 +742%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 29? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 26 $1 +$4 +518%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 1? Jun 26 $1 +$6 +1062%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 8? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 26 $1 +$11 +1575%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 26 $1 +$8 +1065%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 26 $1 +$15 +2839%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 16? Jun 26 $1 +$6 +1014%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 +$1 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21? Jun 26 $0 +$19 +9600%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 26 $1 +$13 +2133%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 26 $1 +$10 +1505%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 27? Jun 26 $1 +$6 +835%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 26 $1 +$7 +901%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +393%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 28? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 11°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 88¢ $28 7m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 88¢ $14 7m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 27? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 93¢ $30 18m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $4 26m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $26 26m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $32 31m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $33 31m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 26? BUY No 71¢ $15 33m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C on June 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 37m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 28 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 28 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 28 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,177.04 · official $2,959.92 · 3500 history records