Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DD 0xdd7b…eee7 politics 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 537d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$715 (-18%) realized −$734 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$115
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$755
crypto 12% −$252
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +25.5% +13.5% 100% 50% +32.1%
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 33% -26.8%
≤90d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 67% 33% -26.8%
all 4 -21.9% -29.3% 50% 25% -62.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 25% -62.0%
10% -36.1% 25% -65.6%
15% -42.3% 25% -68.9%
20% -47.9% 0% -72.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$568 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$941
Realized−$734
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage537d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 51¢ 82¢ $403 $653 +$249 (+62%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 43¢ 51¢ $159 $190 +$31 (+20%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 21¢ 26¢ $39 $47 +$8 (+20%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + UDMR? Yes 4¢ 35¢ $3 $21 +$19 (+681%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $32 $17 −$14 (-45%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? Yes 51¢ 18¢ $37 $13 −$24 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $244 +$115 +47%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $468 −$252 -54%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 05 $2,283 −$884 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 42¢ $64 1h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 86¢ $17 2h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL No 87¢ $225 2h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 79¢ $103 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 84¢ $6 23h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 80¢ $6 23h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 74¢ $51 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 73¢ $22 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 60¢ $73 3d
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include USR + UDMR? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include UDMR? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 49¢ $15 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL Yes 57¢ $86 3d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 51¢ $26 4d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 52¢ $55 4d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL Yes 54¢ $5 4d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY Yes 53¢ $111 4d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 5d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 40¢ $81 6d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $51 6d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 6d
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 20¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $940.96 · official $941.89 (match) · 67 history records