Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd83…4796 politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% $0
other 24% $0
politics 19% $0
sports 9% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +2.5% -7.2% 18% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +2.5% -7.2% 18% 9% -9.5%
all 42 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage298d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $84 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $46 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +42%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $31 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 17 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $1 $0 -6%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 26 $36 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 26 $2 $0 +8%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 345–359 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $42 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $42 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $41 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $1 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $42 31h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $42 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $38 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records