Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd89…4f5d crypto 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$117 (-1%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$4
economics 34% −$4
sports 23% −$3
crypto 4% −$57
other 2% +$4
tech 1% −$25
world 0% −$12
culture 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 7 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 9 -14.3% -22.5% 0% 0% -17.5%
all 34 -16.4% -24.3% 50% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 3% -10.5%
10% -31.6% 3% -19.0%
15% -38.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -44.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage515d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Jun 26 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 26 $50 $0 -1%
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 26 $0 $0 -8%
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3 Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 26 $0 $0 -16%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Canada recession before 2027? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? Mar 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Feb 01 $24 −$24 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jan 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa Dec 31 $18 $0 +3%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 31 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 30 $18 +$1 +3%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Sep 29 $62 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 20 $62 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on May 23? Jun 19 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? May 23 $58 +$3 +5%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times April 4 - 11? Apr 24 $54 +$4 +8%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 05 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 04 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 24 $65 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? Feb 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,750 by January 31? Feb 04 $51 +$14 +28%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $2,585 −$3 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 27 $3,767 −$4 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 27 $3,774 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $48 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 1h
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 97¢ $10 4h
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 97¢ $10 4h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL No 2¢ $0 5h
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY No 2¢ $0 5h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $19 6h
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $19 6h
Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3 SELL No 96¢ $8 6h
Will Evictix Win North America ACE Stage 3 BUY No 97¢ $9 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL No 3¢ $1 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY No 3¢ $2 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 46d
Canada recession before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $13 76d
Canada recession before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $8 105d
Canada recession before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $5 106d
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 110d
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 122d
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 137d
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A BUY Yes 60¢ $24 144d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 170d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 84¢ $21 171d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 176d
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa BUY No 97¢ $18 207d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $18 248d
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft BUY Yes 96¢ $45 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 72 history records