Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd8c…20ef other 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,819 (-1%) realized −$1,819 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%27W / 151L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,392per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$44
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$648
politics 36% −$102
sports 16% −$1,091
culture 2% −$6
world 1% −$3
economics 1% −$3
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 56 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 148 -9.3% -17.9% 7% 5% -10.6%
all 178 -1.9% -11.3% 15% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 11% -10.2%
10% -19.7% 11% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 9% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,861) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$22 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$1,819
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses27 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,392
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $121 $122 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $790 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,783 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,252 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $621 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,873 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,248 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,484 −$2 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $4,039 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $731 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,233 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $77 +$50 +65%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $529 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,869 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $222 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,915 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $2,451 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $415 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,820 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $327 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 28 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,718 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $501 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,164 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $59 +$37 +62%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,968 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $523 −$1 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $58 +$54 +93%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $986 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $280 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $281 2h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $456 19h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $457 22h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $627 25h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $628 26h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $463 2d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $464 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $651 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $652 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $482 3d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $483 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $639 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $639 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $620 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $621 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $525 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $526 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $554 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $555 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $467 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $467 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $425 8d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $425 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $399 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $619 8d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $121 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.93 · official $121.93 (match) · 663 history records