Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd8f…a3dc sports 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,644 (-12%) realized −$1,636 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%91W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$445
14 days+$445
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,138
other 5% −$391
crypto 1% +$47
politics 1% +$66
economics 1% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +59.5% +44.3% 56% 56% +45.2%
≤30d 9 +59.5% +44.3% 56% 56% +45.2%
≤90d 9 +59.5% +44.3% 56% 56% +45.2%
all 194 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 47% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 47% -19.3%
10% -25.2% 47% -27.1%
15% -32.4% 47% -34.1%
20% -39.0% 45% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$68 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$1,636
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses91 / 103
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)194 / 196
History coverage596d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $121 +$143 +118%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $124 −$12 -10%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $109 +$114 +105%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $139 +$158 +114%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $44 −$43 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $102 +$81 +79%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$83 +429%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 08 $20 −$1 -3%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Dec 21 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Vikings (-3.5) Dec 21 $90 +$64 +71%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 21 $52 +$38 +72%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $60 −$8 -12%
Spread: Eagles (-7.5) Dec 18 $320 −$320 -100%
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? Dec 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 17 $233 −$233 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Dec 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Steelers (-3.5) Dec 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) Dec 15 $50 +$31 +61%
Spread: Bulls (-4.5) Dec 15 $50 +$46 +92%
Packers vs. Broncos Dec 14 $230 −$230 -100%
Commanders vs. Giants Dec 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Dec 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Knicks vs. Magic Dec 14 $75 +$42 +56%
Spread: Bills (-1.5) Dec 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5) Dec 13 $22 +$23 +104%
Spread: Pistons (-7.5) Dec 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Dec 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Dec 10 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Magic (-2.5) Dec 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-3.5) Dec 09 $60 +$40 +67%
Spread: Ravens (-2.5) Dec 08 $340 −$340 -100%
Spread: Chiefs (-6.5) Dec 08 $58 +$42 +72%
Dolphins vs. Jets Dec 08 $55 +$40 +72%
Spread: Packers (-6.5) Dec 08 $150 +$133 +88%
Colts vs. Jaguars Dec 07 $246 −$246 -100%
Spread: Ohio State (-4.5) Dec 07 $20 +$16 +82%
Spread: Nets (-3.5) Dec 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Dec 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Magic (-5.5) Dec 06 $30 +$30 +100%
76ers vs. Bucks Dec 06 $40 +$38 +96%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Dec 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Warriors vs. 76ers Dec 05 $35 +$21 +61%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $100 +$59 +59%
Spread: Jazz (-4.5) Dec 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Dec 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $264 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $121 21h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $51 2d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 51¢ $112 2d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 55¢ $124 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $223 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $29 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $109 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 98¢ $297 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $139 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $44 4d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 55¢ $102 4d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 164d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $19 164d
Jaguars vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 63¢ $154 182d
Spread: Vikings (-3.5) SELL Giants 99¢ $154 182d
Spread: Vikings (-3.5) BUY Giants 58¢ $90 182d
Packers vs. Bears SELL Bears 100¢ $90 182d
Packers vs. Bears BUY Bears 58¢ $52 183d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $52 183d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $60 183d
Spread: Eagles (-7.5) BUY Commanders 56¢ $320 185d
Will the Cowboys win the NFC Championship? BUY Yes $10 186d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $10 186d
Eagles vs. Commanders BUY Commanders 28¢ $233 186d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 188d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $105 188d
Spread: Steelers (-3.5) BUY Dolphins 53¢ $50 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.32 · official $92.32 (match) · 311 history records