Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd90…2ca8 crypto 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+1%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%125W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$302
14 days+$302
30 days−$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$250
sports 22% +$27
other 8% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +3.9% -6.0% 47% 46% +4.6%
≤30d 115 -7.3% -16.1% 49% 44% -13.2%
≤90d 264 -8.8% -17.4% 47% 45% -10.3%
all 264 -8.8% -17.4% 47% 45% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 45% -10.3%
10% -25.3% 40% -18.9%
15% -32.6% 35% -26.7%
20% -39.2% 29% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses125 / 139
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage48d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$17 +40%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 +$30 +982%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +22%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $7 +$8 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$61 +86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 +$5 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$39 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$43 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$45 +71%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$48 +237%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $59 +$4 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $40 −$39 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $89 +$39 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $43 18h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 37h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $21 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 452 history records