Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd93…a22b other 286 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$805 (+1%) realized +$805 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate36%102W / 184L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days−$62
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$100
tech 8% +$510
world 2% +$69
politics 1% −$59
crypto 1% +$278
culture 0% −$230
economics 0% −$20
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.3% -2.9% 100% 0% -2.9%
≤30d 32 -22.2% -29.6% 41% 28% -6.8%
≤90d 67 -0.1% -9.7% 37% 27% +3.0%
all 286 -7.1% -15.9% 36% 26% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 26% -8.7%
10% -24.0% 19% -17.5%
15% -31.3% 14% -25.5%
20% -38.0% 13% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$57 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$805
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses102 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)286 / 286
History coverage372d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 286 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 29 $102 +$7 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $21 +$15 +70%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 18 $250 −$103 -41%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $93 +$11 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$30 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $104 −$8 -7%
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $219 −$33 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $206 −$103 -50%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 09 $1,692 +$102 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$7 -64%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 07 $261 −$49 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $232 −$101 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $102 +$15 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 03 $10 $0 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $206 +$205 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $114 −$67 -58%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$8 +154%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$31 +120%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $1,100 +$178 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $204 −$15 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $408 −$253 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $52 +$155 +295%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $208 −$25 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $52 +$38 +72%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $103 −$17 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $52 +$298 +570%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $208 −$26 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $104 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $135 +$84 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $101 +$7 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $52 −$11 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $166 −$6 -4%
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? May 25 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 44¢ $110 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 39¢ $102 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $41 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 8d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $36 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL Yes 6¢ $147 11d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 12¢ $137 11d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $103 12d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 27¢ $104 13d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 23¢ $93 13d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 1¢ $10 15d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 16d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $96 16d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $38 17d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $104 17d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 19d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $43 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $18 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $29 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 20d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $105 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1203 history records