Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DD 0xdd98…9e3d sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$161 (+11%) realized +$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%30W / 37L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$199
14 days+$346
30 days+$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$364
other 20% −$23
crypto 9% +$57
world 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +77.5% +60.6% 45% 45% +22.9%
≤30d 67 +50.4% +36.1% 45% 45% +21.0%
≤90d 67 +50.4% +36.1% 45% 45% +21.0%
all 67 +50.4% +36.1% 45% 45% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.1% 45% +21.0%
10% +23.1% 45% +9.4%
15% +11.2% 43% -1.1%
20% +0.3% 42% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$14 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses30 / 37
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 85
History coverage20d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 +$21 +417%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $55 +$40 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $45 +$15 +34%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$29 +280%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$15 +145%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 −$10 -49%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$11 +109%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $60 +$37 +62%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$15 +298%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$4 -70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$15 +287%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$14 +136%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will B Jun 20 $18 +$11 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +106%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$42 +415%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND France vs Jun 17 $10 +$146 +1420%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$33 +324%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$22 +72%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$19 -62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +162%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +206%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 +$18 +88%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$24 +232%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$10 -33%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $61 +$45 +74%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 94¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $95 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $55 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $60 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $45 5h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AN BUY 4¢ $5 10h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND Nor BUY 12¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $10 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 8¢ $10 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $10 38h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $60 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records