Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd9f…9b0f crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,054 (-43%) realized −$9,120 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$624per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147
7 days−$147
14 days−$147
30 days−$9,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$8,835
crypto 17% +$167
other 1% −$240
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -10.2% -18.8% 54% 50% -12.9%
≤30d 32 -13.4% -21.6% 50% 47% -53.0%
≤90d 33 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 48% -48.0%
all 33 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 48% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 48% -48.0%
10% -27.1% 45% -53.0%
15% -34.2% 42% -57.5%
20% -40.6% 30% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$263 vs −$840 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$9,120
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage30d
Avg bet$624
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $100 $166 +$66 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $264 +$104 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $205 +$124 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $307 +$145 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $308 +$194 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $257 −$257 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $480 +$209 +44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 26 $213 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $217 −$176 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $185 −$185 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $156 +$80 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $205 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $205 +$108 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$23 +87%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $274 −$240 -88%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5,067 −$5,067 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $2,560 −$2,187 -85%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha May 29 $2,332 +$2,328 +100%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $2,701 −$2,701 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 29 $1,146 −$1,146 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $1,350 +$279 +21%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 27? May 28 $3 +$5 +183%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 42m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 44¢ $193 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.83 · official $165.83 (match) · 179 history records