Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdda1…7b5e sports 1026 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$235 (+2%) realized +$233 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%628W / 396L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$157
14 days+$117
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$10
other 3% +$132
crypto 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +27.9% +15.8% 68% 68% +29.2%
≤30d 447 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 53% -7.8%
≤90d 1024 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 50% -8.5%
all 1024 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 50% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 40% -17.3%
15% -26.2% 33% -25.3%
20% -33.4% 23% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses628 / 396
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1024 / 1026
History coverage53d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 80¢ $64 $66 +$2 (+3%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 51¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $3 $0 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 23 $25 −$7 -30%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $3 +$3 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $3 +$5 +152%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$47 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $149 +$88 +60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $4 +$5 +116%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $1 +$1 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $1 +$1 +60%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $1 +$2 +165%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $11 +$16 +145%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$9 +94%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $9 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $35 +$43 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $11 +$10 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$8 +221%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$16 +107%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 +$2 +81%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $3 +$2 +80%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $64 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $1 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 39h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 58¢ $4 40h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 86¢ $15 42h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 84¢ $3 42h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 42h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 46¢ $5 43h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $5 43h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 43h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $3 43h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $74 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $74 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 45¢ $4 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $1 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 62¢ $1 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 48¢ $1 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 37¢ $1 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 82¢ $5 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 61¢ $5 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 79¢ $5 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 79¢ $5 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $1 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.12 · official $84.12 (match) · 2867 history records