Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdda1…9527 sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$602 (+9%) realized +$664 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$269
14 days+$482
30 days+$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$179
other 18% +$509
world 5% −$357
crypto 2% +$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -0.6% -10.1% 44% 42% -5.3%
≤30d 45 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 44% -2.5%
≤90d 45 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 44% -2.5%
all 45 +1.2% -8.5% 47% 44% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 44% -2.5%
10% -17.2% 44% -11.8%
15% -25.2% 42% -20.4%
20% -32.6% 40% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$110 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$664
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage8d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 48¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-18%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 97¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $122 +$89 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$214 +106%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$131 +65%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $307 −$307 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $203 +$168 +83%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$29 -28%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 −$26 -84%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $103 −$16 -16%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$49 +240%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 +$281 +138%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $357 −$357 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $713 −$713 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$45 +220%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $700 +$679 +97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 +$24 +76%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $204 +$485 +238%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$95 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 +$251 +124%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 +$14 +66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$223 +110%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$90 -88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$48 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $304 +$166 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $102 2m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $53 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $122 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 19¢ $31 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $203 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 32h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $31 32h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 33h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 51¢ $45 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $73 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.74 · official $287.74 (match) · 112 history records