Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdda1…cd81 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$101
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$74
politics 11% −$64
crypto 5% −$12
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 16 -55.0% -59.3% 25% 25% -73.2%
≤90d 17 -29.1% -35.9% 29% 29% +24.7%
all 38 -5.9% -14.9% 37% 34% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 34% -10.1%
10% -23.0% 34% -18.7%
15% -30.5% 29% -26.6%
20% -37.3% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage155d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $64 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 20 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $10 +$10 +109%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $49 +$187 +385%
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $147 −$147 -100%
Big Game: Coin Toss Feb 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats Feb 08 $43 +$106 +244%
Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $5 +$4 +66%
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Feb 01 $10 +$27 +256%
SMU Mustangs vs. Louisville Cardinals Jan 31 $10 +$1 +6%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $10 −$2 -20%
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Jan 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners Jan 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers Jan 17 $5 +$22 +434%
Jazz vs. Bulls Jan 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU Tigers Jan 15 $9 +$23 +257%
Lakers vs. Kings Jan 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $8 +$5 +64%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $2 +$2 +108%
Adelaide International, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Jake Delaney Jan 11 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 26¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 12¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $5 6h
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 BUY Yes 76¢ $64 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 18d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 56¢ $12 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 26d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $8 26d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 29d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 18¢ $5 29d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry SELL Perry 100¢ $20 29d
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry BUY Perry 47¢ $10 29d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 99¢ $236 36d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $49 36d
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats BUY Kentucky Wildcats 6¢ $4 99d
Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats BUY Kentucky Wildcats 10¢ $5 99d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 30¢ $137 126d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 36¢ $10 126d
Big Game: Coin Toss BUY Tails 50¢ $2 126d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats SELL Kentucky Wildcats 100¢ $149 127d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats BUY Kentucky Wildcats 18¢ $8 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records