Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdda7…40d8 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%11W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$1
world 32% −$9
other 7% −$2
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% −$13
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 36% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -6.6% -15.5% 33% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 28 -4.8% -13.8% 21% 0% -10.0%
all 47 -2.9% -12.1% 23% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses11 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage347d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $133 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $173 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $268 −$6 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $108 +$4 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $68 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $70 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $26 −$8 -32%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $543 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $543 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $597 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $543 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $544 −$1 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $544 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 11 $114 +$2 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 10 $133 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 10 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 08 $138 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $138 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 08 $138 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 32m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $77 32m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $83 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $16 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $53 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $15 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $84 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $5 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $83 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $51 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $29 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $29 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $91 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $91 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records