Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xddaa…a0d8
sports · 18 markets active 1h ago
9.0score
+$2,158 +80%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,158 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 2 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$30
14 days+$23
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Knicks 62¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$4 (+61%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Over 34¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+194%)
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Golden Knights 70¢ 69¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 50¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Under 56¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 Over 52¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Under 45¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Spurs 38¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Over 42¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Under 27¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $7 +$4 +61%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $8 +$2 +30%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 08 $6 +$5 +89%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $7 +$3 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 08 $8 +$4 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 Jun 08 $7 +$5 +75%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $456 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 07 $4 +$7 +190%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 01 $3 −$3 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-15.5) Mar 11 $115 +$111 +96%
Spread: Heat (-15.5) Mar 11 $2,038 +$2,038 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$2,158
politics 17% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $8 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $4 26h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 62¢ $7 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $455 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 34¢ $4 5d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $8 8d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $2 9d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 38¢ $2 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 13d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 15d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 16d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 77¢ $3 18d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 77¢ $4 18d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 18d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $3 20d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 67¢ $7 21d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 24d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 24d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 53¢ $2 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 53¢ $4 25d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $456 25d
Spread: Heat (-15.5) BUY Heat 50¢ $1,122 93d
Spread: Heat (-15.5) BUY Heat 50¢ $916 93d
Spread: Pistons (-15.5) BUY Pistons 51¢ $115 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +68.1% +52.1% 88% 88% -4.1%
≤30d 14 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% -8.0%
≤90d 14 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 50% -8.0%
all 16 +8.8% -1.6% 56% 56% +63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 56% +63.4%
10% -11.0% 56% +47.8%
15% -19.6% 50% +33.5%
20% -27.5% 38% +20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.46 · official $33.46 (match) · 61 history records