Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xddae…3242 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+3%) realized +$36 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$11
other 28% +$9
sports 18% −$31
world 10% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 25% -10.5%
≤30d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 25% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 25% -10.5%
all 4 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 25% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 25% -10.5%
10% -20.3% 25% -19.1%
15% -28.0% 25% -26.9%
20% -35.1% 25% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 73¢ 71¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 36¢ 14¢ $51 $21 −$31 (-60%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $84 +$9 +10%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 21 $23 +$18 +76%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $29 −$25 -86%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 21 $26 −$3 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.40 · official $101.70 · 15 history records