Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DD 0xddae…52c4 crypto 11 markets active 19h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$1,137 (-68%) realized −$253 · open −$884

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$151per market

Trades / day8.9pace

Kalshi-fit91%portable

Net worth$327now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	5	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	5	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	5	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

— vs −$78 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$327

Realized−$253

Unrealized−$884

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 5

Open positions6

Markets (closed)5 / 11

History coverage7d

Avg bet$151

Trades / day8.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	1¢	0¢	$379	$158	−$221 (-58%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$71	$83	+$12 (+17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$719	$64	−$656 (-91%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$15	$11	−$4 (-28%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$18	$8	−$10 (-55%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?	Yes	3¢	1¢	$9	$4	−$5 (-54%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	Jun 15	$134	−$134	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13?	Jun 14	$60	−$60	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	Jun 14	$98	−$98	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13?	Jun 14	$95	−$95	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	BUY No	0¢	$1	19h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	BUY No	0¢	$1	19h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	BUY No	0¢	$1	19h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	BUY No	0¢	$1	19h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	BUY No	0¢	$0	20h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June?	BUY No	0¢	$0	20h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet	BUY No	1¢	$397	28h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?	BUY Yes	2¢	$4	34h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	38h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?	BUY Yes	6¢	$20	38h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?	BUY Yes	3¢	$7	39h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	6¢	$121	2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	5¢	$7	2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$20	2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	4¢	$30	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$12	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13?	BUY Yes	5¢	$0	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $327.17 · official $327.17 (match) · 68 history records