Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xddbc…aadf sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,539 (+6%) realized +$1,539 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate75%44W / 15L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$201
14 days−$359
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$777
other 8% +$231
politics 8% +$518
sports 5% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -28.4% -35.2% 60% 20% -1.0%
≤30d 14 -5.1% -14.2% 79% 43% -7.9%
≤90d 59 -1.0% -10.4% 75% 47% -4.2%
all 59 -1.0% -10.4% 75% 47% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 47% -4.2%
10% -19.0% 24% -13.4%
15% -26.8% 12% -21.8%
20% -34.0% 3% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,007) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$88 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,539
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses44 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage73d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $901 +$20 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $201 +$8 +4%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $1,007 +$204 +20%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $30 −$21 -68%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $12 +$6 +48%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $50 +$13 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,360 −$1,126 -83%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,458 +$486 +33%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,400 +$58 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,400 +$69 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,400 +$191 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,987 +$298 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,908 +$80 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,717 +$191 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,630 +$88 +5%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $202 +$34 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $1,542 +$54 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $1,458 +$84 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $1,398 +$60 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys May 08 $100 +$19 +19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev May 08 $50 +$3 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $50 −$50 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns May 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $50 −$3 -7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac May 07 $59 +$6 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Tereza Valentova May 07 $50 +$3 +6%
Istanbul: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Laura Pigossi May 07 $50 +$8 +15%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lilli Tagger vs Maria Sakkari May 06 $10 +$2 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Putintseva vs Tereza Valentova May 06 $50 +$8 +16%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova May 06 $10 −$1 -13%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlek May 06 $50 −$2 -4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Panna Udvardy vs Alina Korneeva May 06 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? May 06 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? May 05 $32 +$13 +40%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Elmer Moeller vs Nikoloz B May 04 $10 −$2 -19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v May 04 $10 +$3 +29%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Jacopo Vasami vs Tomas Bar May 04 $50 +$8 +16%
Will FC Fredericia vs. FC København end in a draw? May 03 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Sandefjord Fotball vs. Aalesunds FK end in a draw? May 03 $10 −$9 -88%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? May 03 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw? May 03 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw? May 03 $51 +$10 +20%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC end in a draw? May 02 $17 +$1 +8%
Will FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 02 $51 +$7 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? May 02 $51 +$14 +27%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Ostrava: Tom Gentzsch vs Rudolf Molleker May 01 $30 +$22 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $921 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 97¢ $901 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $208 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,007 44h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $10 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 61¢ $30 3d
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu BUY Jeline Vandromme 49¢ $10 4d
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Paulo Dos Santos 75¢ $22 7d
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 68¢ $20 7d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 67¢ $12 7d
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 79¢ $50 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $234 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $500 10d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY No 75¢ $1,458 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $860 12d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 96¢ $1,400 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,400 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,400 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1,987 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,908 32d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 90¢ $1,717 35d
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? BUY No 95¢ $1,630 36d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $236 37d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 85¢ $202 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,542 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,542 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,458 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1,458 43d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,398 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records