Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xddc2…2cc5 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$646 (+4%) realized +$727 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate75%33W / 11L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day59.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$553
other 33% +$583
sports 5% +$525
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +12.9% +2.1% 75% 68% +1.6%
≤30d 44 +12.9% +2.1% 75% 68% +1.6%
≤90d 44 +12.9% +2.1% 75% 68% +1.6%
all 44 +12.9% +2.1% 75% 68% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 68% +1.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.6% 66% -8.2%
15% -16.6% 48% -17.0%
20% -24.7% 27% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$515) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$216 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,865
Realized+$727
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses33 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage2d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day59.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $1,946 $1,865 −$81 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $713 +$235 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $515 +$362 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $823 +$397 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $569 +$328 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $1,129 −$316 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $517 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $453 −$453 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $409 +$197 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $821 +$104 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $410 +$184 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $822 +$211 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $203 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $205 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$62 +119%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,410 +$165 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $309 +$204 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $309 +$71 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $515 +$347 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $530 −$530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $323 +$162 +50%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Jun 23 $588 +$460 +78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $398 +$189 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $249 +$148 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $184 +$66 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,955 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $205 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $508 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $254 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $203 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $515 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1,220 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $204 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $515 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $897 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $203 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $57 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $336 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $308 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $477 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $411 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $410 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $412 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $412 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $409 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $403 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $473 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $417 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $593 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,864.60 · official $1,864.60 (match) · 142 history records