Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xddc3…029c sports 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$336 (-0%) realized +$96 · open −$432
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%99W / 89L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,000per market
Trades / day119.9pace
Fees−$4,399est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$17,331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$14,266
other 0% +$891
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -24.0% -31.2% 44% 41% -21.2%
≤30d 188 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 48% -13.7%
≤90d 188 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 48% -13.7%
all 188 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 48% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 48% -13.7%
10% -24.7% 40% -22.0%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 36% -29.5%
20% -38.6% 27% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,695) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,240 vs −$1,631 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$17,331
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$432
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses99 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4,399
Open positions12
Markets (closed)188 / 180
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$2,000
Trades / day119.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A ReThink 58¢ 52¢ $4,784 $4,299 −$485 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 66¢ 68¢ $2,824 $2,889 +$65 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Lilmix 57¢ 55¢ $2,790 $2,666 −$124 (-4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $1,836 $1,852 +$16 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $1,359 $1,349 −$10 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $1,102 $1,114 +$12 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $1,100 $1,103 +$3 (+0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $560 $551 −$9 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ 30¢ $475 $475 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 41¢ 42¢ $410 $415 +$5 (+1%)
Will Aurora make a roster change before July? Yes 44¢ 62¢ $242 $344 +$102 (+42%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 21¢ 20¢ $281 $274 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3,845 −$3,845 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,865 −$1,865 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Just Players - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,158 −$1,158 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fi Jun 21 $5,354 −$5,354 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy Black vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - GLu Jun 21 $1,744 −$1,744 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Strael-Bora - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,041 −$1,041 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $4,826 −$4,826 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,360 −$1,360 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy Black vs Aurora Young Blood - Map 2 Win Jun 21 $1,924 −$1,924 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Jun 21 $792 −$2,584 -326%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $248 −$248 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Sashi Esport - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,785 −$1,785 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR.YB (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy Black (+1.5) Jun 21 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs ENCE (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs Jun 21 $1,494 −$1,494 -100%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,953 −$1,953 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Stage Jun 21 $1,912 −$1,912 -100%
Map Handicap: SASHI.A (-1.5) vs Strael-Bora (+1.5) Jun 21 $668 −$668 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $324 −$324 -100%
Map Handicap: ASTR (-1.5) vs MASONIC (+1.5) Jun 21 $2,959 −$2,959 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $254 −$253 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $457 −$450 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,268 −$1,246 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5,679 +$2,200 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $457 +$777 +170%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,204 +$1,096 +91%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,070 +$930 +45%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,803 +$1,469 +82%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $2,254 +$3,201 +142%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,511 +$1,675 +111%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $2,518 +$2,632 +104%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $119 +$12 +10%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $2,695 +$1,301 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,610 −$1,595 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $1,685 +$1,066 +63%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) Jun 20 $2,938 −$316 -11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,295 −$1,280 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Jun 20 $126 −$126 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $3,038 +$3,256 +107%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,900 −$1,900 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $2,215 −$1,798 -81%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $2,584 +$312 +12%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $2,608 +$488 +19%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,258 +$109 +9%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,642 +$636 +39%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3,037 −$3,014 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $916 +$617 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,078 +$2,811 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $4,166 +$3,327 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 54¢ $3 4m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 54¢ $6 4m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 54¢ $0 4m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 55¢ $136 19m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 55¢ $12 21m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 55¢ $1 32m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 55¢ $3 34m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 55¢ $3 34m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 55¢ $6 34m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 55¢ $4 34m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 57¢ $139 49m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 57¢ $3 50m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $728 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 57¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 57¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 57¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 57¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 56¢ $112 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 58¢ $232 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $7 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $656 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $704 1h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 56¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 56¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 56¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 56¢ $104 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 58¢ $582 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 55¢ $260 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 52¢ $158 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,331.44 · official $17,331.44 (match) · 3500 history records