Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddc7…6895 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$134 (+16%) realized +$129 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day75.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$25
other 37% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +14.3% +3.4% 37% 37% +7.3%
≤30d 49 +14.3% +3.4% 37% 37% +7.3%
≤90d 49 +14.3% +3.4% 37% 37% +7.3%
all 49 +14.3% +3.4% 37% 37% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 37% +7.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 33% -3.0%
15% -15.5% 24% -12.3%
20% -23.8% 14% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day75.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 66¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+19%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 58¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 70¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $28 +$8 +27%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$1 -9%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $104 +$33 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 +$4 +38%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 +$20 +786%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$9 -59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 −$3 -19%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$4 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $59 −$26 -45%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 $0 -17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$10 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$20 +69%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -51%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$5 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$6 +30%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $43 +$24 +56%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $4 +$16 +399%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$12 +90%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -33%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -69%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$46 +1116%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $27 +$11 +42%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$18 +60%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 75¢ $35 27m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 28m
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 29m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $4 30m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $16 43m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $16 44m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $27 44m
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 74¢ $26 45m
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 22¢ $9 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 55¢ $10 1h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 23¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $36 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $91 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 30¢ $1 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 74¢ $1 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 74¢ $5 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 73¢ $6 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $5 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 35¢ $1 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 86¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 8¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.66 · official $160.66 (match) · 128 history records