Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xddcd…725f crypto 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$5,270 (+147%) realized +$5,241 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%78W / 130L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day151.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1,011
tech 3% −$92
world 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +16.3% +5.2% 41% 37% +5.8%
≤30d 208 +23.4% +11.6% 38% 33% +13.5%
≤90d 208 +23.4% +11.6% 38% 33% +13.5%
all 208 +23.4% +11.6% 38% 33% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 33% +13.5%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 27% +2.6%
15% -8.8% 21% -7.3%
20% -17.7% 18% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$5,241
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses78 / 130
Open positions2
Markets (closed)208 / 210
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day151.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 36¢ 48¢ $106 $139 +$33 (+31%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +88%
Solana Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
XRP Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $33 −$14 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$7 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$6 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$15 +64%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $106 −$92 -86%
XRP Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $157 +$134 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$8 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$3 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$17 -74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -50%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$3 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
XRP Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$40 +400%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$80 +1000%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$4 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$4 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL No 0¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 0¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $90 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL No 2¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL No 2¢ $0 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 1¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 1¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 1¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 1¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 1¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 1¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.61 · official $162.70 (match) · 3500 history records