Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddd7…f35a world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$1
world 27% +$4
politics 25% $0
sports 13% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.8% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +60.2% +45.0% 40% 13% -8.4%
≤90d 15 +60.2% +45.0% 40% 13% -8.4%
all 41 +18.7% +7.4% 29% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 5% -9.3%
10% -2.9% 5% -18.0%
15% -12.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -20.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage327d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $21 −$1 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $52 +$2 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $29 +$2 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -2%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 29? Aug 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $55 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Jul 29 $1 $0 -40%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $20 $0 -1%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 40h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $27 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $3 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $27 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records