Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:41:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddd8…e6f7 other 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,239 (+3%) realized +$18,149 · open +$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate51%80W / 78L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,252per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$10,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$21,592
weather 14% +$924
politics 13% +$744
world 3% +$112
tech 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +46.6% +32.7% 62% 4% -15.8%
≤30d 68 +41.1% +27.6% 62% 6% -12.9%
≤90d 158 +71.0% +54.8% 51% 13% -16.0%
all 158 +71.0% +54.8% 51% 13% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.8% 13% -16.0%
10% +39.9% 12% -24.0%
15% ← realistic here +26.4% 11% -31.3%
20% +14.0% 11% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$3,549) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +110% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,310 vs −$1,896 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$10,533
Realized+$18,149
Unrealized+$90
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses80 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)158 / 155
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$4,252
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? No 99¢ 99¢ $5,400 $5,422 +$22 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on July 1? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,830 $3,893 +$63 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,114 $1,120 +$6 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $15,457 +$178 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $12,756 +$148 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 26 $10,402 +$110 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $1,226 +$24 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $15,877 +$185 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5,623 +$58 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $4,712 +$56 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $5,505 +$58 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $1,602 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $9,620 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $11,438 +$75 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $990 +$240 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 21 $2,456 −$66 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $816 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $36 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3,151 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $462 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,434 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1,049 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2,015 −$1,015 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $679 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $52,277 +$173 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2,864 +$178 +6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,911 +$11 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6,608 −$39 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $636 +$4 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $2,013 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,283 −$786 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,115 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $3,834 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY No 98¢ $1,273 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY No 99¢ $989 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY No 99¢ $1,571 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on July 1? BUY No 99¢ $1,571 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $6 39h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 39h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 2d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $990 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $297 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $155 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $1,977 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY No 90¢ $27 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $108 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $99 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,533.21 · official $10,533.21 (match) · 3500 history records