Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdddc…e726 crypto 556 markets active 5d ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,270 (-4%) realized −$1,270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%229W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$251
14 days−$535
30 days−$1,513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$1,717
sports 30% −$149
world 6% −$184
other 4% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.2% -7.5% 48% 43% -15.9%
≤30d 383 -10.0% -18.5% 41% 37% -14.9%
≤90d 547 -12.2% -20.5% 41% 37% -16.5%
all 556 -11.7% -20.1% 41% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 37% -15.6%
10% -27.7% 31% -23.6%
15% -34.7% 24% -31.0%
20% -41.1% 19% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$23 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses229 / 327
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)556 / 556
History coverage149d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 556 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$8 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $56 −$41 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$17 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$30 -82%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $1,826 −$190 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$10 -38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $233 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$22 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$24 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$27 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $36 −$18 -50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $61 −$44 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$29 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$15 +56%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $107 −$24 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$7 -41%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$27 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$12 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$17 +322%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$19 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $37 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $77 +$24 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$9 -35%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $74 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $240 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$12 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$12 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 87¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 73¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $56 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $57 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $36 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $127 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $156 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $98 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $64 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 83¢ $179 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $188 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $46 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $36 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $197 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1355 history records