Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddde…0f6c sports 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$9
politics 22% −$2
other 20% $0
crypto 9% −$1
culture 7% −$1
world 6% +$1
economics 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 135 -0.9% -10.3% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage160d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $48 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $3 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 28 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Feb 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)? Feb 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 27 $147 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 26 $137 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 26 $148 −$3 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $111 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 5h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 95¢ $48 13d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $48 13d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $54 20d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 21d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $50 28d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $50 29d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $46 37d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $47 39d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $2 113d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $50 113d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 114d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 114d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $2 114d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 114d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 114d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $50 114d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 114d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $50 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $50 114d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $54 115d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $54 115d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $47 115d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $47 115d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $43 115d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $43 115d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $48 115d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $48 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 503 history records