Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdde2…ed51 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3
politics 19% $0
sports 18% −$13
other 16% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -2.0% -11.4% 30% 3% -9.9%
all 73 -3.3% -12.5% 29% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 3% -10.3%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage492d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $27 −$2 -8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $54 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $27 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $56 −$2 -3%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $119 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $24 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $92 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $26 +$3 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $26 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $64 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $20 −$4 -19%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $60 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $30 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? May 18 $3 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $14 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $11 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $27 43h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $22 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $30 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $27 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $27 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $27 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $20 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $8 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $7 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $14 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 294 history records