Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdde9…4bd5 crypto 354 markets active 8h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,347 (-22%) realized −$5,235 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%65W / 286L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$95
14 days−$508
30 days−$1,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$5,445
other 4% $0
world 3% −$19
sports 0% −$24
economics 0% −$23
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -39.5% -45.3% 23% 15% -14.6%
≤30d 120 -31.1% -37.7% 17% 13% -28.9%
≤90d 258 -24.1% -31.3% 19% 16% -30.9%
all 351 -28.9% -35.7% 19% 15% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 15% -30.9%
10% -41.8% 13% -37.5%
15% -47.4% 10% -43.5%
20% -52.6% 9% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$27 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$5,235
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses65 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)351 / 354
History coverage152d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $301 $226 −$76 (-25%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $41 $4 −$36 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? Jun 19 $40 −$31 -77%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 19 $284 −$64 -22%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$3 -18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $54 +$21 +40%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $503 +$73 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 18 $373 +$100 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$17 -66%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$11 -75%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $28 −$12 -43%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 17 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $111 −$59 -53%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $18 −$3 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $36 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$4 -37%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 12? Jun 12 $97 −$43 -45%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $41 −$20 -48%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 11? Jun 11 $82 −$4 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $79 +$56 +71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 11 $44 −$22 -51%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 11 $28 −$21 -73%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 −$52 -75%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $140 +$18 +13%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 10 $437 −$9 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 9? Jun 10 $355 −$204 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$7 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $170 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $153 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $242 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 11h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 14h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $220 15h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 15h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 15h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 21h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 22h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 22h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 22h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 22h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 22h
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $60 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.41 · official $230.41 (match) · 2828 history records