Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xddec…caea other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+4%) realized +$103 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$246
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$307
crypto 21% −$156
sports 6% −$82
world 4% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 47% +1.8%
≤30d 38 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 47% +1.8%
≤90d 38 +19.8% +8.4% 50% 47% +1.8%
all 62 -15.7% -23.8% 35% 34% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 34% -10.7%
10% -31.1% 31% -19.2%
15% -37.7% 31% -27.0%
20% -43.8% 23% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$19 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage113d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 70¢ $75 $87 +$12 (+16%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay to win the second half? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Egypt to win the second half? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$9 -34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$37 -74%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$16 +46%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $25 +$22 +86%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $25 +$25 +97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$24 -80%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 20 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 +$90 +118%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$32 +70%
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$27 -54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $66 −$32 -49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$55 +36%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$5 -32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$29 +36%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 +$8 +52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$36 +142%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $278 +$104 +37%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$11 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $128 −$116 -91%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$7 -7%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 +$56 +49%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$55 +18%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 +$36 +434%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +80%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 01 $24 −$24 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 01 $55 −$29 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 01 $115 −$60 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 01 $20 −$11 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 01 $35 −$11 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 01 $13 −$13 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 01 $20 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2h
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No 35¢ $17 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $25 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 20h
Japan to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 20h
Japan to win the second half? SELL Yes 93¢ $11 20h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 21h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 22h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $26 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 24h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 30h
Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $6 31h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 31h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.94 · official $175.94 (match) · 201 history records