Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:00:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdded…13a2 crypto 1111 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (251 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,173 (-38%) realized −$2,173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%472W / 639L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day250.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$109
14 days−$695
30 days−$695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$695
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (251 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 729 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 49% -12.8%
≤30d 1111 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -20.7%
≤90d 1111 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -20.7%
all 1111 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 42% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover250.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 42% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 42% -28.3%
15% -31.8% 41% -35.2%
20% -38.5% 37% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2,173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses472 / 639
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1111 / 1111
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day250.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1111 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.79 · official $4.79 (match) · 3500 history records