Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xddef…d52b crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,652 (-3%) realized −$4,663 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%151W / 113L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$585per market
Trades / day77.2pace
Fees−$302est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$753
crypto 16% −$854
sports 16% −$218
other 14% −$325
tech 10% −$22
politics 8% +$113
economics 1% +$1,353
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -16.3% -24.3% 54% 36% -4.4%
≤30d 123 -9.3% -18.0% 45% 32% -9.9%
≤90d 264 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 37% -9.1%
all 264 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 37% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 37% -9.1%
10% -20.3% 27% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.0% 21% -25.7%
20% -35.1% 16% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$189 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$813
Realized−$4,663
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses151 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$302
Open positions2
Markets (closed)264 / 266
History coverage42d
Avg bet$585
Trades / day77.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 84¢ 100¢ $422 $499 +$77 (+18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $380 $314 −$66 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $604 +$146 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $128 −$6 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $75 −$73 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $111 +$67 +60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$18 -18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $503 +$114 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $302 +$69 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $5,791 +$596 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $600 +$50 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $266 −$264 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $93 +$89 +96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $643 +$132 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,404 +$136 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,315 +$91 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,104 +$128 +6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $437 +$146 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$108 -71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $303 +$128 +42%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2,393 +$116 +5%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $610 +$618 +101%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $205 +$93 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $480 +$452 +94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $252 −$252 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,204 +$567 +47%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1,001 +$204 +20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $601 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $104 +$5 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $682 −$682 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$38 -92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $416 −$416 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $300 +$140 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $193 +$194 +101%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $148 +$270 +182%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $544 +$618 +114%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 08 $103 −$86 -83%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 08 $158 −$51 -32%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $281 −$172 -61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 08 $286 +$53 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 100¢ $749 23m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $201 57m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $402 57m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 84¢ $424 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $122 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $49 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $108 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $179 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 61¢ $111 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $102 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $84 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $617 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $370 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $101 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $201 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 96¢ $3,238 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 87¢ $2,928 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 69¢ $2,390 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 58¢ $538 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 58¢ $2,563 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 53¢ $221 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $650 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 72¢ $300 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 65¢ $600 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $266 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $34 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $813.29 · official $814.75 (match) · 3500 history records