Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddf0…70bf world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 20% +$2
politics 18% $0
crypto 8% $0
culture 8% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 36 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage336d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $45 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $63 −$2 -3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $24 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $35 +$2 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on July 25? Aug 10 $57 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 26 $47 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 24 $57 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 22h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 29h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $32 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $27 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $9 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $9 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $24 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records