Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddf1…a604 sports 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (215 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$4,868 (+6%) realized +$4,887 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate47%73W / 83L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day215.0pace
Fees−$984est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$727
7 days+$1,102
14 days+$1,566
30 days+$2,712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$2,258
other 42% +$434
crypto 5% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (215 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +33.9% +21.2% 38% 17% -7.1%
≤30d 156 +46.9% +32.9% 47% 22% -5.5%
≤90d 156 +46.9% +32.9% 47% 22% -5.5%
all 156 +46.9% +32.9% 47% 22% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover215.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.9% 22% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here +20.2% 14% -14.6%
15% +8.5% 11% -22.8%
20% -2.1% 8% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +55% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$8 · ×5.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.04 per $1 lost it wins $5.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$4,887
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses73 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$984
Open positions3
Markets (closed)156 / 134
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$569
Trades / day215.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 76¢ 72¢ $106 $100 −$6 (-6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$2 -45%
FC Barcelona vs. OL Lyonnes: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CS Cristal: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$16 -487%
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-05-20? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -91%
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$18 -130%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$2 -308%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? Jun 15 $0 $0 +22%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -64%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-18? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 15 $0 −$21 -9989%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $3 −$4 -152%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-05-29? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$6 -589%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-26? Jun 15 $1 +$33 +3322%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $27 −$17 -64%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $1 −$4 -617%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,806 −$9 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,806 +$18 +1%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,398 +$13 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,152 +$4 +0%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,273 +$377 +17%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,192 +$206 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $252 +$5 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,458 −$3 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $983 −$9 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $922 −$3 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $804 −$2 -0%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,038 +$45 +4%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $785 +$192 +24%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1,255 −$6 -0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $465 +$49 +11%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,231 +$32 +3%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,634 +$2 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,223 −$66 -5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,122 −$6 -0%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,162 −$27 -2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $307 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,525 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 77¢ $3 0m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 77¢ $1 0m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 77¢ $40 0m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 76¢ $9 1m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 76¢ $76 1m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 76¢ $66 1m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 26¢ $93 3m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 26¢ $1 3m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 26¢ $50 4m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 27¢ $0 4m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 27¢ $123 4m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 27¢ $0 4m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 27¢ $15 4m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 27¢ $11 4m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 73¢ $152 7m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 72¢ $150 8m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $2 12m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $1 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $15 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $3 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $48 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $3 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $1 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $1 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $8 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $15 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $1 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $3 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $1 13m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 69¢ $48 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.53 · official $100.20 (match) · 3500 history records