Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xddf6…ecfa world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%24W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$9
politics 20% $0
other 15% −$12
sports 11% +$4
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 35 -0.4% -9.8% 31% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 81 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 89 +1.8% -7.9% 27% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 2% -10.0%
10% -16.7% 2% -18.6%
15% -24.8% 2% -26.5%
20% -32.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses24 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage534d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $135 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $61 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $86 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $70 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $69 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $69 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $68 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $38 −$7 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $33 −$4 -12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 -1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $42 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $26 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $117 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $83 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 34m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $22 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.66 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records