Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xddf8…eeb4 economics 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-38%) realized −$92 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 456d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 100% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-83.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -9.5% -18.1% 0% 0% -18.1%
≤30d 1 -9.5% -18.1% 0% 0% -18.1%
≤90d 1 -9.5% -18.1% 0% 0% -18.1%
all 5 -81.9% -83.6% 0% 0% -76.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.6% 0% -76.0%
10% -85.2% 0% -78.3%
15% -86.6% 0% -80.4%
20% -87.9% 0% -82.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$18 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage456d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 10¢ 22¢ $30 $65 +$35 (+115%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $35 −$3 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $45 −$45 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $3 −$3 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.14 · official $65.14 (match) · 8 history records