Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xddf9…09ae other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%13W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
politics 14% −$7
other 7% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
sports 1% −$15
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.7% +5.6% 17% 17% -0.6%
≤30d 20 -0.0% -9.6% 15% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 49 -2.7% -12.0% 20% 12% -10.2%
all 61 -2.3% -11.6% 21% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 10% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 10% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 10% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses13 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)61 / 63
History coverage622d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $12 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $7 +$8 +101%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $54 $0 +1%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $93 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 18 $6 +$6 +90%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $81 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $89 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $83 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 +$4 +48%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 +$6 +86%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $10 +$8 +72%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 06 $21 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $41 +$1 +1%
Jets vs. Rangers Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 13h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 16h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 36h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 38h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $7 43h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $34 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $16 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $16 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $8 10d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $21 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $21 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.77 · official $73.77 (match) · 290 history records